Ultimate Analysis and Predictions for the 2024 U.S. Election

On May 30, 2024, a jury in a New York court found former President Donald Trump guilty by a margin of 34-0, adding another fiery blow to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The ruling was seen by many as a retaliatory strike by the Democrats against the Republicans, and even more so as a revenge by current President Joe Biden against former President Trump.The US election is officially held in November 2024, and with less than five months to go, the whole drama is about to come to a final climax. Who will claim the throne of the White House is not only a fight between the Democrats and Republicans, but also a war between the Biden family and the Trump family. Between life and death, just who will become the most powerful man on the planet? This will affect the political and economic trends in the United States in the next four years, and even more so, the direction of the global development. We will explain and analyze in detail from three aspects to present you the ultimate prediction of the U.S. election.

I. U.S. political environment

1. Democratic Party vs Republican Party

Let's start with the current political environment in the U.S. The conviction of former President Trump on May 30th can be seen as an escalation of the conflict between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. For a long time, there has been a fundamental contradiction between the Democratic Party, represented by the emerging bourgeoisie, and the Republican Party, represented by the powerful elite, which involves international political issues, energy issues, economic development issues, immigration issues, feminist issues and so on. The two parties fight each other in Congress, battling it out over every bill. However, there is very little personal animosity between the two sides. It can be said that although there are serious differences between the two sides in their positions, but in private many Democrats and Republicans are still very good friends. So the fight between the two sides is more of a fight between ideologies.

Trump was surprisingly elected president of the United States in 2016. And in the election, the promised investigations and charges against the Democratic contender Hillary ended up in vain. The fundamental DNA that makes democratic politics sustainable is the need for compromise on both sides, i.e., both the winner and the loser know where the rules draw the line. For a long time, everyone has unspokenly abided by the rules of the game and avoided touching that bottom line. But this time the Biden-led Democrats have broken the mold, and the conviction of former President Trump in his trial has gone well beyond that bottom line. The personal vendetta between the two parties has reached an irreconcilable level, setting a bad precedent for domestic politics in the United States. The conflict between Democrats and Republicans will become even more violent in the future, and the struggle between the two sides will rise from an ideological battle to a personal feud.

In addition, at the beginning of 2024, Texas clashed with the Biden administration over immigration, and the Republican governor used the state guard and other military forces to fight against the National Guard; other Republican-controlled state governments, such as Florida, have supported the state from the military, supplies, and other aspects; and the state government ultimately ended up with a victory. The conflict between Democrats and Republicans will gradually begin to escalate as we enter the year 2024. The American society will be even more torn in the future.

2. Biden's Crisis

As Biden enters the middle of 2024, he is facing a serious personal crisis since he started his political career. If Biden's longtime support for Ukraine and the provision of weapons and funds to fight a war of attrition with Russia was out of a commitment to protect NATO, it would be understandable; after all, as the world's largest hegemony, the United States has a need to protect Europe. However, the new Palestinian-Israeli conflict, in the midst of the new Palestinian-Israeli conflict, is heavily biased in favor of Israel, defying the domestic pro-Palestinian people, and has completely enraged the Native Americans. The Democrats are finally paying a heavy price for their brainless immigration policies.

For years the Democrats have been active supporters of immigrants, whether they are immigrants from Mexico or refugees from other countries around the world. They hoped to expand the Democratic Party's base by adding new refugees, in the hope that these new immigrants would support the Democratic Party by helping them through the principle of “reciprocity”. This policy has worked very well over the past few decades. California, for example, which has the highest number of immigrants, has become a stable vote bank for the Democratic Party. However, at the beginning of the 21st century, the United States launched two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in the name of fighting terrorism. The U.S. was forced to accept many refugees from the Arab world in the Middle East.

Not only the U.S., but the entire world of Western countries, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, and other European Union countries have been forced to accept a huge number of Arab refugees. Through the power of democracy, the West hoped to ideologically transform these new immigrants into stable supporters in their own political camps. In practice, however, the newcomers soon found it difficult to integrate into the Western world, with their deep-rooted Islamic traditions taking over. Often, in times of frustration, people prefer to return to conservatism and find the strength of tradition. Although some of these new immigrants have been modernized and educated in the West, they have not changed their traditional thinking, refusing to participate in the activities of Christian churches and maintaining their identity. And in 2024, the children of these huge numbers of new immigrants are growing up to be young men in their 20s, militant and possessed of youthful strength.

On the contrary, the chronically low birth rates in the West have provided these new immigrants with another opportunity to become a major force to be reckoned with in society. We have seen that in major schools in the United States, fierce struggles have erupted because of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The Columbia University incident, the Harvard incident, etc. have added more instability to the political situation in the US. And Hollywood, tech companies, and EU countries have all joined in this right and wrong, choosing to take sides in favor of Xi Israel or Palestine, depending on their core interests. Gradually, the pro-Palestinian statehood camp is getting bigger and bigger, which brings unprecedented political pressure to the Democratic Party and President Biden, who have long supported the Israeli camp, and has become the biggest obstacle to his re-election.

The Biden family is deep in a lawsuit crisis. Biden's youngest son, Hunter, was charged with three offenses with September 2023, and the lawsuit is still ongoing. The blow to Hunter is a Republican counterattack in retaliation for the Biden administration's 2023 opening of an investigation into the former Trump president. In addition, the Biden family is deeply involved in a corruption scandal in Ukraine. Hunter has been accused of using Biden family influence to help Ukraine win support in the U.S. Congress and the White House, receiving huge rewards for doing so. All of these scandals are deeply troubling the Biden family.

President Biden, in June 2024, had the darkest moment of his political career. Facing the upcoming general election in November 2024, the pressure has increased dramatically. So, pinning hopes on the conviction of former President Trump with this moment to distract the middle voters. Pave the way for his re-election.

3. Trump's conviction, the biggest X-factor

This conviction of Trump will be the biggest turning point of this election, similar to the impact of the new 2020 crown epidemic on former President Trump. Ostensibly, Trump's conviction could affect middle-of-the-road voters, especially those who are rational, distracting and favoring President Biden. But in reality, it will have a huge “butterfly effect”, impacting Biden's electorate and favoring former President Trump.

First of all, we must be clear about one thing, voters are never a rational group of people. They are a very easily seduced, simple, passionate, paranoid group. The conviction of Trump will not shake the attitudes of his supporters. On the contrary, it will only deepen the convictions of his supporters; in addition, many middle-of-the-road voters will turn to vote for Trump because they feel that President Biden has gone a little too far; the sense of crisis brought about by the conviction will make many voters even more determined to hold on to their convictions, and female supporters tend to sympathize more with the weak; Trump can effectively take advantage of this mentality to garner the support of more female voters; and the conflict between the Palestinians and the Israelis will make even more voters support Trump and abandon Biden;

People tend to coalesce more easily in times of crisis, and this is especially true of voters as a group. Trump is another political figure who particularly knows how to promote himself and create crises. He is radical, has simple language, practices what he preaches, knows how to create conflict, and understands the needs of the group, all of which are characteristics expected of a democratic political leader. With this conviction against him, Biden has actually given him another big gift to justify creating a bigger crisis and causing panic, hostility, and anxiety among the people, thus benefiting his own electorate.

Voters, this special group, they have their own characteristics: the wisdom of the group is very primitive, any personal feelings, intelligence will be replaced by the feelings and intelligence of the group; the more basic the emotional factors, the easier it is to arouse the enthusiasm of the voters; this simple emotional factors don't care about the nature of the matter, don't pursue rationality, only care about emotional belonging as well as unconditional support. So this conviction of Trump creates objective environmental conditions for these characteristics. Definitely favorable to Trump's election.

4. Trump's will factor

It takes determination, willpower, and resilient confidence for a person to accomplish something. And once you leave yourself a good way out, naturally the willpower to win will be poorer, and the results achieved will not be as good as expected. That's what it means to be put to death. Obviously, Trump is now facing a bigger crisis than Biden, and needs this election victory even more to ensure his own safety as well as that of his entire family. Otherwise, once he loses this presidential election, the era belonging to him will be completely over. He will face endless political hunts, cuts and abandonment by Republicans. In the end, not only will his personal reputation be jeopardized, but he will even go to jail.

People often say, never push someone to death, the most effective way is to keep hitting him, but then always leave him a way out, only the situation is getting worse and worse, the way out is getting less and less, but no matter what must leave the last bite of the meal; Otherwise, directly push someone to death, others will not feel fear, on the contrary, they will be freed from fear, enjoy the pleasure of this pressure, inspire greater potential. This is the way many coaches train their athletes. At this moment, for Trump, he has been pushed to his death by Biden, with nowhere to hide and nowhere to run. The non-stop lawsuits, scandals, and right-wing media attacks over the past few years have caused no end of trouble for the former president. Only by fighting back head-on, utilizing all resources and capabilities, and bursting with great potential can he regain the presidency, have power, and get rid of all the troubles.

On the contrary, President Biden is far inferior to Trump in terms of willpower. This election will not be a crisis of personal interest for Biden even if he loses. After all, at the age of nearly 90, his ability and physical strength make him overpowered in the presidency. He has completed his political career. From senator, vice president, to president, reached the peak of his political career, his family will still have some influence in the Democratic Party in the future. Retiring from the presidency will still allow him to live in peace and enjoy the few remaining years of his life. In addition, the Democratic Party has prepared for Biden's defeat. Fighting for more Senate seats is the focus of the Democratic Party election in November, which can inhibit Trump's “recklessness” from Congress.

Therefore, from a personal point of view, Trump will have more willpower than Biden to regain the presidency.

To summarize, from a political point of view, Trump currently occupies an absolutely dominant position. However, the struggle between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party will be more violent, and the American society will be more torn.

II. The U.S. Economy

Many people say that the economy determines politics, and Wall Street elites, in particular, are looking for a connection between the performance of the stock market and the outcome of the presidential election. In a sense, the economy determines politics, and politics in turn reacts with the economy. Their relationship is one of mutual influence, but in the modern system of finance, politics tends to be the prior factor, occupying a greater weight. It can be said that politics influences the economy 60 percent of the time, while the economy feeds back into politics 40 percent of the time. Over the past four years, the Biden administration led the U.S. economy is deeply troubled by inflation, the economy is difficult to move forward. Although in the Federal Reserve as well as the Ministry of Finance joint efforts to achieve a soft landing of the U.S. economy, gradually out of the haze of inflation. But the road to the revival of the U.S. economy is still far away. The core of the problem is the Biden government came to power after the implementation of a series of economic policies, pushed up the international oil prices, and the Russian-Ukrainian war further exacerbated the rise in oil prices, and ultimately brought the global economy into the era of inflation completely.

At the beginning of 2020, the international price of oil has always been maintained near 30 U.S. dollars. There was even a “crude oil treasure” burst, the international oil futures directly killed to the negative number of times. Stabilized oil prices for the Federal Reserve's continuous quantitative easing to provide an objective guarantee, but also achieved Trump's economics, that is, low inflation, low unemployment state. U.S. stocks even continued to move higher, making history. But the new crown epidemic became a “black swan event”, and ultimately Trump's re-election failed.

After President Biden came to power, through a series of bills, suspended the U.S. offshore oil exploration, natural gas policy, gradually pushed up the international oil prices, for inflation laid the groundwork. The reason behind it is easy to understand, environmentalists have long been the main supporters of the Democratic Party, they play the name of environmental protection, lobbying Congress, the development of more stringent environmental protection bill, supported by the Democratic Party; on the contrary, the Republican Party's gold masters are mainly U.S. oil companies, such as traditional industries, which has resulted in the Republican Party and the environmental protection of people with the long-standing differences and irreparable contradictions. Although, the U.S. economy in the past four years has also achieved steady growth, but the high unemployment rate continues to erode the wealth of the people.

The economic growth of the United States in these four years is mainly attributed to the rapid development of science and technology, the meta-universe, artificial intelligence, OpenAI came out of nowhere as well as accelerating the application of the U.S. economic development for the United States injected into the heart of the United States, so that the U.S. economy has a greater resilience. But economic growth cannot hide the loss of the middle class, many of whom have not shared in the profits from the development of technology, but have instead lost their wealth to inflation. The middle class is in even more urgent need of new economic policies to redistribute wealth, to fight for greater benefits, and to find a lost sense of belonging

So, economically, Trump, who is a businessman, clearly has an advantage over Biden and is more likely to win the hearts of voters.

III. International Environment

1. European Union

For the EU countries, the Democratic Party as well as Biden are more in line with their interests. They all belong to the emerging bourgeoisie and share the common ideal of maintaining peace and stability in the world since World War II and, more importantly, in Europe. This requires the United States to continue to assume the position of international hegemony and lead NATO to ensure regional peace. However, Trump is a businessman, more focused on economic values, the United States first policy in his first term has caused conflicts with the European Union countries, and even appeared “six heads of state siege” picture. Trump is willing to take responsibility for the United States as a hegemonic power, but is not willing to pay, invest money, and hope that other countries such as NATO to bear the cost. This is the fundamental point of conflict between the two sides. During his tenure, Germany has been pressured to raise its military overhead and take on more military spending in exchange for continued U.S. protection of Europe. In addition, the trade war with Europe has been even more detrimental to the interests of EU countries. Therefore, the European Union is more hopeful that the like-minded Democratic Party and Biden was elected president, rather than the “retreat” oriented Trump.

2. China

For China, Beijing favors Trump over Biden. 2020, Beijing hoped to improve US-China relations with the Democrats and President Biden, and to ease the trade conflict between China and the US. But after Biden came to power, not only did he not improve relations with Beijing, but he also intensified his new “de-risking” policy toward China. Not only did he continue to maintain Trump's trade agreements on trade, but he also increased tariffs on new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic and other products; and on the political front, he used the Taiwan issue to continue to put pressure on Beijing and reduce its international influence. This series of issues has driven Beijing further and further away from Washington.

Beijing has also found Biden more difficult to deal with than Trump. For Trump, the two sides are more of a battle of economic interests, to meet some of the economic interests of the United States, he is willing to make concessions on international issues; while for Biden, even if he meets the economic interests, he is not willing to make concessions on international politics. This has directly led to a sharp cooling of relations between China and the United States. Beijing prefers Trump's re-election to that of the radical Democrats.

3 Russia

For Vladimir Putin, it is clear that the election of Trump is more expected. The Biden family is deeply tied to Ukraine, which makes it difficult for Democrats to make concessions on Russia and Ukraine. There will be continued bottomless support for Ukraine until Russia is dragged to death. This is the last result Putin wants to see. Although in the short term, Putin has absolute power in the country, and has also received all-round support from Beijing to ensure economic security; but the continuous war of attrition will increase more uncertainties, and the probability of compromise for any party will only be smaller; on the contrary, once Trump is elected, there will inevitably be contradictory disagreements within NATO on the Ukrainian issue, which is even more conducive for Putin to pull out of the Russo-Ukrainian war. In addition, Trump has always been a businessman, war is not his priority option, he is more focused on profit. Russia's natural low-cost energy is what the US as well as the West needs. So Putin will fully support Trump's election than Biden.

4 The Middle East

In the Middle East, especially the Palestinian-Israeli issue, it is clear that Trump is more in the interest of the Arab countries. The Middle East has been in a constant state of conflict and strife for the past decade or so. Syria, Iran, Egypt, and Israel are all at war. How to deal with the relationship between Israel and the Arab countries is a dilemma that has plagued the entire world, which has resulted in an ongoing conflict between the two sides. However, we have to realize that the world is changing, and nowadays the Western countries are no longer as supportive of Israel as they used to be; on the contrary, more and more countries are supporting the establishment of a Palestinian state. The main reason behind this is still the population, which continues to grow in Arab countries, exporting huge numbers of refugees to the Western world, as well as the idea of Islam.

The western world can no longer ignore their voices and must face this issue head on. Hamas is not Israel's main adversary, and even if it were eliminated, new anti-Israeli forces would be born, which is in line with the needs of the people of the Arab world. Compared with the Democratic Party, which is deeply tied to Jewish forces, the Republican Party will naturally have greater negotiating and bargaining power on the Middle East issue, and more ways to deal with the contradictions between the two sides and balance the interests of both sides. Therefore, Arab countries will be more welcoming to Trump as well as Republicans.

It can be seen that, in terms of the international environment, it is likewise more looking forward to the new international political balance brought about by Trump. In the age of the Internet and the high-speed flow of information, the export of any ideology is easier than before. It is conceivable that no country will give up this opportunity to utilize democratic politics and elect a new president who is more in line with their interests.

To summarize, we build a model through the above analysis, assign different weights to each factor, and finally conclude that the probability of Trump being re-elected as US president is as high as 73.25%, while the probability of Biden being re-elected is only 26.75%.

However, we have to face the fact that Trump's re-election brings a whole new change to the world. This change is that the United States will continue to “retreat”, unwilling to assume the responsibility of the hegemonic powers; Europe will lose its sense of security, the world's regional disputes continue to deepen, the accelerated collapse of global integration, each country will seek their own interests to accelerate the promotion of regional integration, looking for new political and economic partner groups, join new organizations, the world will be Inevitably, the world will enter a state of “disorder”; local protectionism will dominate, and the friction between countries will intensify, and the world order will become more chaotic. However, this is more conducive to the rise of China, which will take advantage of the opportunity to formulate new policies, assume the responsibilities of a hegemonic power, increase its influence in the world, and eventually and inevitably enter into the new world order of a bipolar hegemony between China and the United States.

Epilogue:

Finally, some suggestions for investing after Trump's election:

1. the election of Trump, the national oil price is bound to fall back to the level of less than 50 dollars. So short oil, or short sell oil, energy stocks, you can make huge profits.

2. long U.S. stocks. Trump is bound to continue the quantitative easing policy, which is definitely favorable to the U.S. stock market, whether it is the Dow Jones or NASDAQ, I believe that will soon hit record highs again. Our focus continues to be long tech companies, especially AI-related companies. The first is NVIDIA, raising its stock price to $1,500; followed in order by Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon and finally Apple. Don't see Apple growing in the short term.

3. Go long on U.S. Treasuries. Trump's election is bound to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and drive up the price of Treasuries. So going long on Treasuries now could be just as profitable.

Grasp the first hand, layout in advance, in order to extract the silk cocoon, find the essence of the problem, earn huge profits.

Samuel Policy, take you to meet the future!

BY S@P GROUP.